Political delay (or is that decay?)

Iraq war: Gordon Brown aims to delay inquiry report until after election

Nicholas Watt, chief political correspondent

The Guardian, Tuesday 14 April 2009

Gordon Brown will announce by the autumn a "long" inquiry into the Iraq war, indicating that the potentially embarrassing report will be delayed until well after the general election expected next year.

Ministers have decided that the inquiry should be wide-ranging, possibly dating back to Margaret Thatcher's tacit support for Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Its main focus will be on the conduct of the 2003 war and the breakdown of law and order afterwards.

David Lidington, the shadow foreign minister, said: "I think the government are determined to avoid the report being published before the general election. But they do not have even a figleaf of an excuse for a further delay."

Brown has agreed that an inquiry will be held after the withdrawal of all British combat troops from Iraq, which must take place by 31 July. Government sources insist that no final decisions have been made on the format and timing of the inquiry, though it is expected to meet in private and to be given a lengthy timetable.

Brown and David Miliband, the foreign secretary, want to assess the success of the operation to withdraw British combat troops before deciding when to make an announcement.

The Guardian understands that, on current thinking, an announcement is unlikely in the immediate aftermath of a 31 July withdrawal. This raises the possibility that it will come in early October when MPs return from the summer recess. An autumn announcement would mean hearings did not start until the new year. Ministers are keen not to commit themselves to an early announcement because they are nervous about the withdrawal, fearing that militias could use it to stage attacks on British forces.

One Whitehall source said: "If everything goes to plan and everyone is out and you don't need to leave a substitute force there, then you can get on with the inquiry. But if you have to keep a large force in place to guard the withdrawal, then that's going to be dangerous and will delay any announcement on an inquiry."

When ministers make the announcement, they are likely to say that it will be modelled on the Franks inquiry, which reported on the Falklands war in 1982. This consisted of six privy counsellors who met in private and had access to all the relevant government papers. "A privy council inquiry probably makes sense because they can see all the papers," one government source said.

The Franks report criticised the Thatcher government for failing to make the Falkland Islands a priority, but famously exonerated it of mistakes in the run-up to the Argentinian invasion. If the government follows the convention of the Franks inquiry, Brown would have to consult all other party leaders who are members of the privy council on the format and composition of the panel. Opposition parties would also have places on it.

Downing Street knows the inquiry could be both helpful and dangerous for Labour. It might help win back the estimated two million voters who have abandoned Labour over "toxic" issues such as Iraq and identity cards.

But a damning verdict would be damaging, particularly Gordon Brown, who funded the war as chancellor, Geoff Hoon, who was defence secretary, and Jack Straw, who was foreign secretary.

Tony Blair would probably welcome any delay in publishing the report. The former prime minister is making active plans to assume the new role of president of the European Council if Irish voters pass the Lisbon treaty in a referendum this autumn.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/14/iraq-war-inquiry-brown-hussein